A thinking tool created by Mark C Winters, first used in 2015. The tool illustrates the range of prediction uncertainty involved when setting priorities and goals. Uncertainty is directly correlated with the level of unknowns involved in any given project that might be considered. If the "how" is known and the path forward can be clearly seen, prediction confidence may be relatively high. On the other hand, if much of the "how" is unknown, it is very likely that unexpected difficulties will be encountered - lowering confidence that the project could be completed in the time available. This tool illustrates that short-term priorities (12 mo or less) should live primarily in the prediction zone, while longer-term priorities can live with much higher levels of uncertainty.